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October 3, 2004
The Power of Preemptive Thinking
Positive thinking and preemption may be the worst combination of policies possible. Taken separately, these policies have much to recommend them, but their nexus is so fraught with danger that most sitting presidents have not even ventured close to the intersection of these ideas.
Unfortunately for this administration, preemption and positive thinking got us into a mess in Iraq that positive thinking isn’t likely to get us out of.
President Bush has made it clear that he is a man who settles on a goal and archives it. Further, he’s articulated a concise belief in the innate force of democracy. However, he’s not demonstrated great skill in “filling in the gaps” in a plan. True, he’s boldly launched an effort to stabilize the middle east – but the work doesn’t seem to be going very well at all.
The doctrine of preemption is fundamentally predicated on knowing what is highly likely to happen. Preemption without deep insight and understanding is reckless and irresponsible. Today’s article in the New York Times on “How the White House Embraced Disputed Arms Intelligence” steps through the machinations of how intelligence is vetted (or not), and shows that the intelligence regarding Iraq's nuclear programs was not conclusive. If this intelligence truely motivated the administration to the conclusion that Iraq had a viable nuclear program, a serious mistake was made.
Senator Kerry has pointed out that President Bush has not demonstrated the deep insight needed to competently discharge the responsibilities of preemption, and hence, has broken the promise he made to us four years ago. This is a very serious charge which calls for frank discussion in the public forum.
Posted by pgutwin at October 3, 2004 6:56 PM